Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda50…2a41 other 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$285 (+2%) realized +$288 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%61W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$174
7 days−$174
14 days−$174
30 days−$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$3,173
sports 25% −$2,025
crypto 16% −$1,450
culture 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +81.6% +64.3% 57% 53% -17.7%
≤30d 30 +81.6% +64.3% 57% 53% -17.7%
≤90d 30 +81.6% +64.3% 57% 53% -17.7%
all 150 +4.1% -5.8% 41% 38% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 38% -11.7%
10% -14.9% 38% -20.2%
15% -23.1% 37% -27.9%
20% -30.6% 35% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$109 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$381
Realized+$288
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses61 / 89
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)150 / 154
History coverage200d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $162 −$155 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $221 −$210 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $373 +$314 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $299 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $292 −$280 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $82 +$66 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $85 +$200 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 −$101 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $68 −$67 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $29 +$51 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $289 +$205 +71%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $28 +$31 +109%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$12 +23%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $29 +$61 +214%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $57 +$60 +105%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $28 +$17 +59%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $79 −$78 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $29 +$54 +188%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $28 +$24 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $69 +$89 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $162 +$135 +83%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $29 +$83 +289%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $262 −$260 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bulls vs. Hawks Mar 18 $128 −$128 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $313 +$2,141 +684%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $104 +$9 +9%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $50 +$54 +108%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $322 −$322 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Feb 01 $28 −$3 -9%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $350 +$215 +61%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $28 +$18 +64%
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $50 +$56 +112%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $82 +$117 +143%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $25 +$2 +7%
Millwall FC vs. Sheffield United FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 31 $35 +$13 +38%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 54m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.51 · official $380.54 (match) · 437 history records