Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DA 0xda4d…0483 crypto 589 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (256 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5,199 (-2%) realized −$5,159 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate74%428W / 154L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$524per market
Trades / day256.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$12,212
other 3% +$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (256 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 347 +6.9% -3.3% 76% 27% -6.7%
≤30d 582 +7.3% -2.9% 74% 27% -5.9%
≤90d 582 +7.3% -2.9% 74% 27% -5.9%
all 582 +7.3% -2.9% 74% 27% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover256.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 27% -5.9%
10% -12.2% 26% -14.9%
15% ← realistic here -20.7% 26% -23.1%
20% -28.5% 25% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$40 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.0 per $1 lost it wins $3.0
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$5,159
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses428 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)582 / 589
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$524
Trades / day256.3
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 582 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET Down 49¢ 100¢ $23 $48 +$24 (+104%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 47¢ 33¢ $34 $24 −$10 (-30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7PM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$7 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $514 +$3,629 +706%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $245 −$245 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 +104%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $5,034 +$966 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET Jun 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $731 −$731 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $569 +$20 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $763 +$54 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $1,099 +$121 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $1,288 +$25 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $1,652 +$134 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET Jun 24 $225 −$225 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET Jun 24 $358 +$786 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$3 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $350 −$340 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $424 +$839 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$5 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $33 +$35 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET Jun 24 $356 −$356 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $136 −$135 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 24 $125 −$125 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $34 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $214 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $300 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $31 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $245 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $131 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $300 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $300 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $200 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $205 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.56 · official $102.56 (match) · 3500 history records