Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda49…b396 sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-19%) realized −$92 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$15
other 25% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -30.0% -36.7% 25% 25% -11.1%
≤30d 4 -30.0% -36.7% 25% 25% -11.1%
≤90d 4 -30.0% -36.7% 25% 25% -11.1%
all 4 -30.0% -36.7% 25% 25% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 25% -11.1%
10% -42.7% 25% -19.6%
15% -48.3% 25% -27.4%
20% -53.4% 25% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$32 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 36¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 32¢ 32¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Algeria 40¢ 40¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$91 +89%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $72 −$70 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$5 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $41 13m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $192 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 32¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 15h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $72 15h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $46 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $51 18h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.51 · official $237.51 (match) · 11 history records