Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DA 0xda48…cf9c other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$38 (+30%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$36
crypto 16% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +29.8% +17.4% 67% 33% +9.1%
≤30d 3 +29.8% +17.4% 67% 33% +9.1%
≤90d 3 +29.8% +17.4% 67% 33% +9.1%
all 3 +29.8% +17.4% 67% 33% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.4% 33% +9.1%
10% +6.2% 33% -1.3%
15% -4.1% 33% -10.9%
20% -13.5% 33% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage3d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$15 -75%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 +$4 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 10m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $60 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.10 · official $25.10 (match) · 8 history records