Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:37:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda48…5926 sports 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (122 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,719 (-11%) realized −$7,491 · open −$1,228
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%40W / 56L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$748per market
Trades / day122.3pace
Fees−$1,030est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,985now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27,226
7 days−$27,663
14 days−$9,285
30 days−$9,285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$13,681
other 8% +$3,168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (122 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -27.5% -34.4% 34% 28% -68.9%
≤30d 96 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 36% -20.8%
≤90d 96 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 36% -20.8%
all 96 -11.7% -20.1% 42% 36% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 36% -20.8%
10% -27.7% 32% -28.4%
15% ← realistic here -34.7% 28% -35.3%
20% -41.1% 20% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$1,296) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
16.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$607 vs −$600 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$2,985
Realized−$7,491
Unrealized−$1,228
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses40 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$1,030
Open positions7
Markets (closed)96 / 104
History coverage14d
Avg bet$748
Trades / day122.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Baltimore Orioles 58¢ 94¢ $1,083 $1,763 +$679 (+63%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Boston Red Sox 50¢ 98¢ $256 $501 +$245 (+96%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 41¢ 94¢ $85 $194 +$109 (+129%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Under 58¢ 84¢ $128 $184 +$56 (+44%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Minnesota Twins 82¢ 100¢ $128 $156 +$29 (+22%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Over 34¢ 16¢ $216 $106 −$111 (-51%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 63¢ 6¢ $470 $41 −$429 (-91%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 44¢ 6¢ $229 $29 −$200 (-87%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 47¢ 2¢ $214 $11 −$204 (-95%)
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Baltimore Orioles 54¢ 2¢ $54 $2 −$53 (-97%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 24¢ 0¢ $184 $0 −$183 (-100%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 21¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 21 $146 +$49 +34%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $644 −$16 -2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $67 −$39 -58%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $245 +$65 +27%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 21 $71 +$31 +44%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $96 −$94 -98%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 21 $4 +$1 +34%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $69 −$64 -93%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $45 −$40 -89%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $39 +$24 +63%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $2 +$3 +156%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 −$29 -99%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$4 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $9 +$6 +58%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $51 −$11 -21%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $40 −$30 -75%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $31 −$11 -36%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $9 +$1 +6%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $37 −$17 -46%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $69 −$52 -76%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $46 −$36 -78%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$2 +19%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 20 $9 +$1 +8%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $18 −$8 -46%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $73 +$42 +58%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 20 $187 +$90 +48%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $159 +$117 +73%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $61 −$41 -67%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $96 +$4 +5%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 20 $41 −$11 -27%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5 Jun 20 $55 −$14 -25%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $39 +$16 +42%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $83 −$73 -88%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $66 −$26 -39%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $11 −$1 -11%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 20 $45 −$25 -55%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $262 +$127 +48%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $75 $0 +0%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $33 −$20 -61%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $4,320 −$3,690 -85%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5 Jun 19 $324 −$55 -17%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $763 −$208 -27%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 19 $152 −$152 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $970 −$970 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 19 $1,008 −$1,008 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,296 −$1,296 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,980 −$1,980 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $40 52m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 55¢ $13 52m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 61¢ $59 56m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 56m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 21¢ $21 56m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 41¢ $17 56m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 41¢ $24 56m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 53¢ $48 56m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 36¢ $37 59m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 44¢ $22 59m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 70¢ $37 59m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $25 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 73¢ $6 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 73¢ $6 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 73¢ $10 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 73¢ $3 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 73¢ $10 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 42¢ $4 1h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 48¢ $2 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 21¢ $21 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 18¢ $18 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 34¢ $35 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 9¢ $1 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 18¢ $18 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 37¢ $37 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 35¢ $3 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 35¢ $26 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 35¢ $6 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 14¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,985.30 · official $2,999.53 (match) · 1842 history records