Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda47…f40a other 192 markets active 13d ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 332d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$93,013 (+6%) realized +$93,013 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate80%153W / 39L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$7,559per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1,787
30 days+$13,775
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$11,540
sports 16% +$50,232
world 14% +$5,545
politics 11% −$8,277
tech 8% +$23,172
economics 5% +$9,971
culture 4% +$22,128
crypto 2% +$214
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +7.6% -2.7% 100% 17% -2.7%
≤90d 11 +12.3% +1.6% 100% 27% -2.8%
all 192 +13.9% +3.1% 80% 29% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.1% 29% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -6.8% 18% -13.1%
15% -15.8% 12% -21.5%
20% -24.0% 9% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$8,655) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,191 vs −$2,388 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$93,013
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses153 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions0
Markets (closed)192 / 192
History coverage333d ⚠
Avg bet$7,559
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 192 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $44,539 +$1,787 +4%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $35,640 +$8,360 +24%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $59,070 +$2,860 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $33,339 +$161 +0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 02 $2,790 +$166 +6%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Jun 02 $6,595 +$440 +7%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31? Apr 01 $1,050 +$673 +64%
Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition Apr 01 $777 +$118 +15%
Weed rescheduled by March 31? Apr 01 $365 +$1 +0%
Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31? Apr 01 $3,188 +$316 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $14,885 +$75 +0%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Mar 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) Mar 24 $24,446 −$77 -0%
Spread: Houston Cougars (-10.5) Mar 22 $1,033 −$1,033 -100%
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers Mar 18 $27 +$28 +102%
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhorns Mar 18 $13,160 +$14,840 +113%
Maduro out by February 28, 2026? Mar 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Cade Horton win the National League Rookie of the Year? Mar 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 20 and 30 mi Mar 18 $1,489 −$596 -40%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 18 $3,300 −$870 -26%
Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the top US Netflix Mar 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Mar 18 $880 −$880 -100%
Trump renames Department of Defense by September 30? Mar 18 $791 −$791 -100%
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get more than 15m views on da Mar 18 $8,629 −$7,424 -86%
Will "Christmas Gameday: Lions vs. Vikings" be the top US Netflix show Mar 18 $278 −$278 -100%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Mar 18 $1,505 −$1,505 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 18 $7,202 −$2,246 -31%
Buccaneers vs. Lions: O/U 52.5 Mar 18 $1,922 −$1,922 -100%
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31? Mar 18 $2,855 −$2,855 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 18 $3,015 −$3,015 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Mar 18 $4,880 −$3,453 -71%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Mar 18 $8,920 −$8,920 -100%
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? ( Mar 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Trump sue the BBC? Mar 18 $12,792 −$12,792 -100%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Mar 18 $6,480 −$6,480 -100%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Mar 18 $7,776 −$7,776 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $9,680 −$30 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 16 $9,293 +$297 +3%
Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported? Feb 10 $1,760 +$80 +4%
Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $871 +$84 +10%
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $766 +$234 +30%
Will Post Malone perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $1,249 +$201 +16%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $1,270 +$560 +44%
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $2,458 +$542 +22%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $4,807 +$1,483 +31%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 07 $23,680 −$401 -2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 07 $6,423 +$1,110 +17%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 04 $54,904 −$2,655 -5%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $2,010 +$990 +49%
Iran strike on US military by January 31? Feb 01 $2,602 +$597 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $8,014 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $19,240 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,059 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $12,334 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $21 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $3,375 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $488 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $670 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $21 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $9 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $85 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $213 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $43 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $21 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $43 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $2,984 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $13 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $43 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $38 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $265 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $43 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $43 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $21 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $9 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $85 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $16 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $9 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $853 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $9 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records