Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:36:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda46…f83b other 247 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$377 (+2%) realized +$130 · open +$247
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate76%181W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$687now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$104
14 days+$174
30 days−$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$373
crypto 22% −$509
other 21% −$72
politics 7% +$33
sports 5% +$85
finance 3% +$245
weather 2% −$81
economics 1% +$5
tech 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +48.4% +34.3% 74% 60% -1.8%
≤30d 65 +34.6% +21.7% 63% 51% -18.9%
≤90d 100 +18.5% +7.2% 67% 41% -13.6%
all 238 +3.4% -6.5% 76% 24% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 24% -10.3%
10% -15.4% 13% -18.9%
15% -23.6% 9% -26.7%
20% -31.1% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$28 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$687
Realized+$130
Unrealized+$247
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses181 / 57
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)238 / 247
History coverage234d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 41¢ 97¢ $181 $423 +$242 (+134%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $51 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? No 75¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? No 89¢ 96¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June? Yes 21¢ 38¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+79%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $60 +$3 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $56 +$9 +16%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $60 +$6 +11%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $60 +$6 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$7 +12%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 +$56 +786%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $57 +$9 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $60 +$14 +23%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $121 −$57 -48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$10 +19%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 +$13 +650%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$12 +31%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$2 +8%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 +$2 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$40 +262%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? Jun 18 $3 $0 +4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 +$39 +474%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 +$5 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$45 +291%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $50 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 89¢ $40 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL No 97¢ $194 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 89¢ $60 16h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL No 90¢ $270 18h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $59 18h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 85¢ $50 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $60 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $6 26h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $40 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 90¢ $60 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 3d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $60 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $60 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $56 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $50 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $74 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $48 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? SELL No 74¢ $48 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $9 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $60 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $60 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $687.27 · official $687.27 (match) · 661 history records