Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DA
0xda42…d020
crypto · 171 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$41 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$58 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses76 / 90
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)166 / 171
History coverage33d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 5 History 166 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$18
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Yes 31¢ 35¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$9 +284%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -28%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -84%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -33%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -28%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 47% −$56
sports 23% −$5
weather 16% −$17
other 13% +$9
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 21m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 56¢ $18 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 67¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 55¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 23h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 39% -20.1%
≤30d 129 +3.2% -6.6% 47% 41% -17.4%
≤90d 166 -2.9% -12.1% 46% 42% -20.8%
all 166 -2.9% -12.1% 46% 42% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 42% -20.8%
10% -20.5% 33% -28.4%
15% -28.2% 26% -35.3%
20% -35.2% 17% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.41 · official $4.41 (match) · 648 history records