Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda42…361f crypto 147 markets active 14h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$259 (-20%) realized −$259 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%49W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$83
14 days−$120
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$224
politics 6% −$71
world 6% +$2
other 4% −$53
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -25.1% -32.3% 32% 26% -22.2%
≤30d 138 -25.9% -32.9% 33% 28% -24.9%
≤90d 138 -25.9% -32.9% 33% 28% -24.9%
all 147 -26.5% -33.5% 33% 27% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 27% -35.7%
10% -39.9% 23% -41.9%
15% -45.7% 20% -47.5%
20% -51.0% 14% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses49 / 98
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage250d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 395 history records