Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DA 0xda41…61e3 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$45 (+14%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$34
tech 10% $0
other 7% $0
crypto 4% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -40.5% -46.1% 50% 50% -15.4%
all 8 +41.5% +28.1% 62% 62% +22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.1% 62% +22.7%
10% +15.8% 50% +10.9%
15% +4.6% 50% +0.2%
20% -5.6% 50% -9.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×5.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.17 per $1 lost it wins $9.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage248d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Croatia 97¢ 97¢ $207 $207 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 0.5 May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump attend UFC 327? Apr 12 $17 +$3 +19%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $1 +$1 +104%
Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Feb 11 $15 +$13 +89%
Millwall FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 25 $16 +$20 +127%
XRP Up or Down - December 18, 10AM ET Dec 19 $12 +$12 +96%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 07 $35 $0 -1%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 18 $25 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Croatia 97¢ $208 2h
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 3¢ $5 38d
Will Trump attend UFC 327? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 75d
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 97d
Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $15 134d
Millwall FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $16 150d
XRP Up or Down - December 18, 10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 187d
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL No 62¢ $34 228d
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY No 63¢ $35 228d
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? SELL No 57¢ $24 248d
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY No 58¢ $25 248d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.47 · official $207.47 (match) · 17 history records