Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DA 0xda40…8b98 other 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$11
politics 36% −$10
sports 5% +$11
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 111 -1.8% -11.2% 6% 3% -9.8%
all 121 -0.0% -9.5% 10% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×8.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 109
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage116d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $375 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $232 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $147 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 29 $374 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $147 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $162 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $168 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $185 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $191 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 23 $136 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $136 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 20 $159 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $137 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $183 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $147 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $165 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $154 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $344 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 11 $171 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $171 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $167 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $185 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $148 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $168 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $134 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $310 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $160 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $199 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $294 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $181 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $72 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 01 $259 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $161 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 29 $192 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 6h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 20h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 20h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 39h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 39h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 6d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 6d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 15d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 17d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 18d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 18d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 20d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 20d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 20d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 20d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $186 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $186 23d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $147 24d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $147 24d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $162 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.99 (match) · 345 history records