Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DA 0xda3d…787a other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$118 (+4%) realized +$129 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$609now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$72
sports 14% +$195
crypto 3% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +14.8% +3.8% 64% 64% -1.3%
≤30d 11 +14.8% +3.8% 64% 64% -1.3%
≤90d 11 +14.8% +3.8% 64% 64% -1.3%
all 11 +14.8% +3.8% 64% 64% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 64% -1.3%
10% -6.1% 55% -10.7%
15% -15.2% 55% -19.4%
20% -23.5% 36% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$149 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$609
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $367 $364 −$3 (-1%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $104 $102 −$2 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $90 $85 −$5 (-6%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $427 +$203 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $272 +$155 +57%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $122 +$150 +123%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $186 −$64 -34%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $91 +$88 +97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $242 −$145 -60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $218 +$23 +11%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $236 +$110 +47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $106 23m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $371 23m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $92 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $61 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $630 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $427 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $272 20h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $272 20h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $122 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 47¢ $122 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $186 23h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $180 23h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $91 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 29¢ $97 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $242 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $241 28h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $218 29h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 29h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $346 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $346 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $175 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $175 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $609.35 · official $609.37 (match) · 27 history records