Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:47:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DA 0xda3a…381f sports 243 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (348 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$277,751 (+62%) realized +$271,930 · open +$5,821
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%78W / 86L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,840per market
Trades / day348.5pace
Fees−$5,604est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$155,432now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$5,049
other 23% −$2,606
crypto 1% +$104
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (348 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 +8.8% -1.6% 48% 48% -6.1%
≤30d 164 +2.7% -7.1% 48% 47% -10.4%
≤90d 164 +2.7% -7.1% 48% 47% -10.4%
all 164 +2.7% -7.1% 48% 47% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover348.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 47% -10.4%
10% -16.0% 45% -19.0%
15% ← realistic here -24.1% 40% -26.8%
20% -31.6% 37% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$3,241) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,221 vs −$2,052 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$155,432
Realized+$271,930
Unrealized+$5,821
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses78 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$5,604
Open positions84
Markets (closed)164 / 243
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$1,840
Trades / day348.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 84 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 96¢ $10,876 $12,227 +$1,351 (+12%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ 60¢ $7,650 $9,075 +$1,425 (+19%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $8,716 $8,661 −$55 (-1%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $8,463 $8,064 −$399 (-5%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 74¢ $7,590 $7,392 −$198 (-3%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 96¢ $6,336 $7,119 +$783 (+12%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 42¢ $4,443 $6,752 +$2,309 (+52%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 36¢ $6,012 $5,832 −$180 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $4,398 $5,629 +$1,231 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 45¢ 46¢ $5,400 $5,460 +$60 (+1%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $5,330 $5,427 +$97 (+2%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 89¢ $4,800 $5,340 +$540 (+11%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 46¢ $4,500 $4,550 +$50 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 73¢ 74¢ $4,380 $4,410 +$30 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 57¢ $4,816 $4,396 −$420 (-9%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ 100¢ $2,088 $4,259 +$2,171 (+104%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 11¢ 14¢ $3,095 $3,992 +$896 (+29%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 28¢ $3,623 $3,256 −$367 (-10%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 40¢ $3,144 $2,662 −$482 (-15%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 26¢ 26¢ $2,556 $2,605 +$49 (+2%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 45¢ $2,321 $2,426 +$104 (+4%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 44¢ $2,165 $2,419 +$253 (+12%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 30¢ $2,493 $2,399 −$94 (-4%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 41¢ 44¢ $1,914 $2,078 +$164 (+9%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $1,879 $2,070 +$191 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $77 +$23 +30%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $750 +$880 +117%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $4,891 +$6,251 +128%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $2,600 −$2,600 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4,397 +$8,103 +184%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $268 +$212 +79%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $884 +$1,116 +126%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $5,275 +$9,725 +184%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $725 +$955 +132%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,339 +$1,775 +133%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $265 −$265 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $257 +$401 +156%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $4,081 −$4,025 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5,175 +$4,825 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $229 −$229 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $418 +$584 +140%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,850 −$1,850 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 14 $159 −$155 -97%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $211 +$518 +245%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 14 $4,200 −$4,200 -100%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 14 $318 −$318 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,254 +$1,773 +141%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $347 +$118 +34%
Game Handicap: GAL (-2.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+2.5) Jun 14 $969 +$1,602 +165%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $3,152 +$1,040 +33%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,287 +$606 +47%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $985 +$985 +100%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $2,057 +$1,913 +93%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 14 $59 +$16 +27%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,863 +$502 +27%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3,835 −$3,835 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $362 +$96 +27%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4,044 +$1,830 +45%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,095 +$286 +26%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,160 +$547 +47%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $138 −$138 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $4,728 −$4,674 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $8,127 −$8,125 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $13,609 −$13,466 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $567 −$558 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $259 −$255 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,565 −$1,565 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,928 −$2,928 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2,764 +$4,899 +177%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $241 +$418 +174%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $7,306 +$8,262 +113%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $36 +$39 +108%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $6 12m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $1 12m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $3 12m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $0 14m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $0 15m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $4 15m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $4 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $0 27m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $1 28m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $1 29m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $1 34m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $25 35m
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 41¢ $8 40m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $1 43m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $0 43m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $1 43m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $3 47m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $114 53m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $2 54m
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155,432.27 · official $155,420.96 (match) · 3500 history records