Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:41:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DA
0xda39…5129
other · 55 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses19 / 35
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage589d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 1 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $101 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $97 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $6 +$8 +119%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $94 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $6 +$9 +165%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $87 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $92 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 24 $92 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $89 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 23 $92 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $94 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $91 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $92 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$5 +76%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $7 +$5 +62%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $10 +$5 +48%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $9 +$6 +70%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $6 +$6 +93%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $7 +$7 +105%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $25 $0 +1%
Flames vs. Avalanche Apr 01 $29 +$9 +30%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 30 $24 +$9 +38%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Knicks vs. Hornets Mar 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-1.5) Mar 26 $26 +$30 +116%
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Mar 22 $18 +$46 +256%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 05 $94 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Feb 13 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 26 $13,514 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $14 $0 -3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 04 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $23 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 76% −$13
politics 14% −$10
other 8% −$52
sports 2% +$74
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 2h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 40h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 46h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 7d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 8d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 8d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 8d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 8d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $20 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $20 17d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 19d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $19 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 24d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 24d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 24d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 25d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 25d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $57 26d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $97 26d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 26d
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Miami Marlins 45¢ $6 29d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $94 33d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $94 33d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 37¢ $6 35d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $87 37d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 37d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $88 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 +10.7% +0.2% 27% 9% -7.9%
≤90d 39 +17.4% +6.2% 38% 31% -8.3%
all 54 +12.4% +1.7% 35% 22% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 22% -9.5%
10% -8.0% 22% -18.2%
15% -16.9% 20% -26.1%
20% -25.1% 17% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.66 · official $17.66 (match) · 245 history records