Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda38…668e sports 167 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$420 (-5%) realized −$417 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%82W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$19
14 days−$170
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$291
other 26% −$136
world 6% +$21
crypto 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -45.6% -50.8% 29% 25% -14.1%
≤30d 70 -20.2% -27.8% 43% 37% -17.7%
≤90d 112 -29.3% -36.0% 42% 29% -15.3%
all 165 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 25% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 25% -14.3%
10% -33.8% 22% -22.5%
15% -40.2% 18% -30.0%
20% -46.1% 15% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$417
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses82 / 83
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)165 / 167
History coverage169d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 59¢ 60¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 22 $6 $0 +4%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 $0 -5%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $9 $0 -3%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $61 +$57 +93%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $94 +$11 +12%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$15 +76%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 +$4 +26%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4 +$5 +140%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $14 −$11 -78%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $200 +$5 +2%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$14 +67%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $122 +$133 +109%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $30 +$15 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$9 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $30 +$7 +24%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $251 −$250 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $110 +$4 +4%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 11 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 +$12 +226%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? Jun 11 $13 +$74 +555%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $105 −$4 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $100 +$16 +16%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 $0 +28%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $81 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 38¢ $6 13h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $10 13h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $9 13h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $6 16h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 16h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $9 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $61 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $94 45h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $25 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $10 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $20 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 79¢ $15 5d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $4 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 5d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $15 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.05 · official $87.05 (match) · 336 history records