Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

DA 0xda37…7aa0 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$326 (+25%) realized +$326 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip

Net edge+15%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate67%6W / 3L

Drawdown1%max

Avg bet$120per market

Trades / day2.3pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit64%portable

Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$138

7 days+$214

14 days+$315

30 days+$315

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)+14.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+18.0%	+6.8%	57%	43%	+13.9%
≤30d	9	+26.7%	+14.6%	67%	56%	+17.8%
≤90d	9	+26.7%	+14.6%	67%	56%	+17.8%
all	9	+26.7%	+14.6%	67%	56%	+17.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+14.6%	56%	+17.8%
10%	+3.6%	56%	+6.5%
15%	-6.4%	44%	-3.8%
20%	-15.6%	33%	-13.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 48% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +27% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$54 vs −$2 · ×26.34 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×52.69 per $1 lost it wins $52.69

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$270

Realized+$326

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses6 / 3

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions2

Markets (closed)9 / 11

History coverage11d

Avg bet$120

Trades / day2.3

Drawdown1%

Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	Paper Rex	65¢	66¢	$150	$151	+$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Team Falcons	60¢	60¢	$120	$119	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$59	−$3	-6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$123	+$77	+62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$18	−$1	-5%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	Jun 19	$294	+$66	+22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$121	+$78	+64%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$15	−$2	-11%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Jun 16	$196	$0	+0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$161	+$58	+36%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$55	+$43	+78%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	BUY Paper Rex	65¢	$152	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	60¢	$121	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	56¢	$55	24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$59	32h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	18¢	$18	42h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	SELL Paper Rex	100¢	$204	44h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY Paper Rex	76¢	$80	45h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY Paper Rex	79¢	$79	45h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	SELL Paper Rex	78¢	$156	45h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$18	46h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY Paper Rex	57¢	$59	47h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY Paper Rex	76¢	$77	47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$62	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$62	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$199	4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	14¢	$14	4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	15¢	$15	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	60¢	$121	4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL Yes	98¢	$196	4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY Yes	98¢	$98	7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY Yes	98¢	$98	7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	100¢	$220	7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	81¢	$98	10d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Knicks	99¢	$98	10d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	55¢	$55	10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	62¢	$63	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.15 · official $270.15 (match) · 28 history records