Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda35…b2db crypto 756 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$468 (+4%) realized +$473 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate58%451W / 329L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day92.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$236
7 days−$353
14 days−$102
30 days+$407
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 74% +$810
crypto 26% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -34.8% -41.0% 32% 19% -22.7%
≤30d 651 -7.4% -16.2% 54% 34% -5.9%
≤90d 780 -6.3% -15.3% 58% 37% -5.9%
all 780 -6.3% -15.3% 58% 37% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 37% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 15% -14.9%
15% -30.8% 10% -23.1%
20% -37.6% 9% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$473
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses451 / 329
Open positions8
Markets (closed)780 / 756
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day92.1
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 780 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 89¢ 89¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? No 90¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17? No 78¢ 50¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 11? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 8? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 12? Jun 17 $17 −$18 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 12? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 9? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 9? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 12? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 13? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 10? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 11? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 8? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 13? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 10? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 13? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C or below on May 12? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 13? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 7? Jun 17 $15 −$17 -115%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 6? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 6? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 10? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 6? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 12? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 7? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 7? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $60 −$25 -42%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $31 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $63 +$98 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $110 −$10 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 +$6 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $79 −$13 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $110 +$44 +40%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $45 −$44 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 92¢ $10 23m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $5 27m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 33m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 34m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $26 39m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 89¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 69¢ $9 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 64¢ $35 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 74¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 54¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 54¢ $24 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 27¢ $25 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? SELL Yes 92¢ $69 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? SELL Yes 92¢ $32 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? SELL Yes 92¢ $48 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? SELL Yes 92¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 50¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 82¢ $42 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 37¢ $32 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 51¢ $19 18h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 51¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 51¢ $8 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.95 · official $66.55 (match) · 3500 history records