Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda34…9a0b crypto 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$137 (-5%) realized −$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate41%48W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day49.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$359
7 days−$384
14 days−$461
30 days−$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$87
world 25% −$357
weather 3% −$14
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -30.4% -37.0% 37% 19% -72.0%
≤30d 116 -18.3% -26.1% 41% 24% -30.2%
≤90d 116 -18.3% -26.1% 41% 24% -30.2%
all 116 -18.3% -26.1% 41% 24% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.1% 24% -30.2%
10% ← realistic here -33.1% 19% -36.9%
15% -39.6% 14% -43.0%
20% -45.5% 10% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses48 / 68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)116 / 116
History coverage9d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day49.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 116 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $587 −$268 -46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$6 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$3 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$11 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 −$15 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$20 +136%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$4 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $24 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $25 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $11 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $14 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $20 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $25 3h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $50 3h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $70 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 480 history records