Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xda33…007e weather 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$590 (+1%) realized +$568 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate95%125W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$423per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,051now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$188
14 days+$493
30 days+$564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$531
world 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 64 +1.7% -8.0% 97% 5% -8.1%
≤90d 131 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 4% -8.7%
all 131 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 4% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -8.7%
10% -17.6% 2% -17.4%
15% -25.5% 1% -25.4%
20% -32.8% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$555) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$146 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1,051
Realized+$568
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses125 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage82d
Avg bet$423
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? No 97¢ 100¢ $740 $761 +$21 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $290 $291 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,038 +$34 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $504 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $554 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $724 +$22 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $287 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $323 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $699 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $783 +$15 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $225 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $177 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $811 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $974 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $966 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $588 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $925 +$22 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $868 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $911 +$14 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $454 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $455 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11? Jun 12 $220 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 12 $682 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $564 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $884 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $870 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $872 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $813 +$29 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 8? Jun 09 $827 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $810 +$13 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 08 $599 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $801 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 90°F or higher on June 6? Jun 07 $794 +$15 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $385 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $401 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 5? Jun 06 $614 +$172 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $434 +$134 +31%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 04 $281 +$198 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $422 −$395 -94%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 02 $667 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $299 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $361 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $647 +$15 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $641 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 30? May 31 $629 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 30? May 30 $381 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 30? May 30 $247 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 30 $611 +$19 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $204 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 29? May 29 $400 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 28? May 28 $54 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $113 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $572 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $290 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1,072 19h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $1,038 25h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $136 42h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $7 42h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $356 42h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $13 43h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $541 43h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $746 44h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $270 45h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $20 45h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $103 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $589 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $287 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $323 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $81 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,051.47 · official $1,050.88 (match) · 527 history records