Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda33…d488 crypto 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-8%) realized −$59 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +116% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +66% what you keep after slip
Net edge+66%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%57W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+95.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 +138.4% +115.7% 40% 39% -24.5%
≤30d 143 +115.9% +95.3% 40% 38% -25.6%
≤90d 143 +115.9% +95.3% 40% 38% -25.6%
all 143 +115.9% +95.3% 40% 38% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +95.3% 38% -25.6%
10% ← realistic here +76.6% 34% -32.7%
15% +59.6% 29% -39.2%
20% +43.9% 26% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +116% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +205% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses57 / 86
Open positions6
Markets (closed)143 / 149
History coverage13d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 42¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Up 52¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Down 23¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+324%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-98%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -53%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $3 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $3 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.25 · official $161.94 · 403 history records