Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:48:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xda32…462e other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$69 (+1%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate96%22W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$484per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$17
sports 38% +$84
crypto 11% +$2
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 23 +3.5% -6.4% 96% 17% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 17% -9.0%
10% -15.3% 13% -17.7%
15% -23.5% 9% -25.7%
20% -31.0% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,279) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$26 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.64 per $1 lost it wins $3.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses22 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage194d
Avg bet$484
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $192 $192 −$0 (-0%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 in May? Jun 01 $138 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $154 $0 +0%
Will fewer than 140 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026 May 09 $292 +$1 +0%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $291 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 10? Apr 11 $291 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Pistons Apr 01 $291 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 20 $30 +$25 +82%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Mar 20 $50 +$10 +20%
Suns vs. Spurs Mar 20 $50 +$12 +24%
Magic vs. Hornets Mar 20 $50 +$25 +49%
Celtics vs. Spurs Mar 11 $1,292 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 2 above $7.50? Mar 07 $1,291 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 23 above $130? Feb 28 $1,289 +$2 +0%
Hawks vs. 76ers Feb 21 $1,280 +$9 +1%
Will "Alone" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 10) Feb 13 $1,279 +$1 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $540 end of January? Jan 31 $1,278 +$1 +0%
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jan 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Over $100M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 10 $1,301 +$3 +0%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $96 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $523 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $410 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $192 1h
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $138 29d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $154 29d
Will fewer than 140 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026 BUY No 100¢ $292 48d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $291 66d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $291 79d
Raptors vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $291 86d
Suns vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 81¢ $50 98d
Clippers vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 55¢ $30 98d
Cavaliers vs. Bulls BUY Cavaliers 83¢ $50 98d
Magic vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 67¢ $50 98d
Celtics vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $1,292 107d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 2 above $7.50? BUY No 100¢ $1,291 111d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 23 above $130? BUY No 100¢ $1,289 120d
Hawks vs. 76ers BUY Hawks 99¢ $1,280 126d
Will "Alone" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (February 10) BUY No 100¢ $1,279 137d
Will Meta (META) close above $540 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,278 147d
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? BUY Yes $26 158d
Over $100M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY No 100¢ $1,301 169d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $410 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $131 184d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $96 189d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $51 193d
Aster all time high by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $48 193d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $523 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.35 · official $292.35 (match) · 48 history records