Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda31…f8ac crypto 178 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%85W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day101.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$87
sports 3% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 48% -11.9%
≤30d 177 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 48% -11.9%
≤90d 177 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 48% -11.9%
all 177 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 48% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 48% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 48% -20.3%
15% -29.4% 47% -28.0%
20% -36.3% 44% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$48 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses85 / 92
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)177 / 178
History coverage3d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day101.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ 58¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$45 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $130 −$30 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $130 +$66 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $129 −$33 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $154 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$42 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $83 +$53 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$57 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $154 −$100 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$44 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$69 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $153 −$24 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$52 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $100 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $59 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.70 · official $87.77 · 397 history records