Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:17:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DA 0xda30…aa46 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,240 (-10%) realized −$1,245 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate57%28W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$1,396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$274
7 days+$212
14 days−$1,377
30 days−$1,198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$456
sports 39% −$454
crypto 3% −$289
politics 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.4% -8.2% 58% 42% -2.9%
≤30d 49 -7.5% -16.4% 57% 39% -19.8%
≤90d 49 -7.5% -16.4% 57% 39% -19.8%
all 49 -7.5% -16.4% 57% 39% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 39% -19.8%
10% -24.4% 31% -27.5%
15% -31.7% 12% -34.5%
20% -38.4% 10% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$111 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$1,396
Realized−$1,245
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses28 / 21
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage20d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1,089 $1,096 +$7 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $302 $300 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $202 +$101 +50%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 26 $283 +$12 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $338 −$3 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $379 +$89 +23%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $203 −$5 -2%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $252 +$71 +28%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $373 +$101 +27%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $256 +$22 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $251 −$2 -1%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$48 -93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$27 -52%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $354 −$3 -1%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $258 +$74 +29%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$78 +76%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $640 −$635 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $352 −$11 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $229 −$225 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $322 +$50 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $195 +$55 +28%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $42 −$41 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $114 +$5 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +202%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$10 +20%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$11 +111%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $440 −$389 -88%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $283 +$89 +31%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $271 +$11 +4%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $905 +$18 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 −$40 -72%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $331 −$289 -87%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $301 +$35 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$3 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $83 +$14 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $54 +$9 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 +$40 +8%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $201 +$5 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $122 +$41 +33%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $201 +$6 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $618 +$41 +7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $22 +$7 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $304 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 87¢ $303 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,096 5h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 61¢ $295 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $334 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $468 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $379 29h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $197 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $338 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $67 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $38 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $203 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $324 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 95¢ $474 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 57¢ $283 5d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $278 6d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 85¢ $256 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 81¢ $249 6d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 17¢ $24 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 7d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 55¢ $101 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $252 7d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 74¢ $373 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $251 7d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 59¢ $352 7d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 58¢ $354 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,395.62 · official $1,395.62 (match) · 111 history records