Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda30…75e7 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$2
other 22% −$2
politics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +2.0% -7.7% 31% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 13 +2.0% -7.7% 31% 8% -9.1%
all 31 +0.2% -9.3% 45% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 3% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage455d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $45 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +43%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $13 −$1 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $11 −$2 -13%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $48 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $8 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 28 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 28 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 27 $1 $0 -22%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 26 $9 $0 -1%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 25 $9 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? Apr 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? Apr 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 23 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $45 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $38 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $38 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $50 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $12 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $12 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $46 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $46 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $47 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $47 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $8 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $1 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $34 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $42 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $10 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $11 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.52 · official $44.52 (match) · 87 history records