Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda2c…e987 other 47 markets active 7h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%6W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$17
other 14% −$2
culture 4% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% −$8
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 35 -2.8% -12.1% 11% 0% -10.0%
all 46 -2.6% -11.9% 13% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses6 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage602d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $175 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $63 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $61 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $60 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $61 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $63 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $62 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $4 $0 +5%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 05 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $2 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 16 $3 $0 -13%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $51 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $353 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,855 −$4 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 23 $1,383 −$6 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $1,278 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 6h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 7h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 10h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 6d
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 7d
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 13d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 13d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 14d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 14d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 24d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 24d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 25d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 25d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 29d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 30d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 30d
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $6 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.33 · official $36.33 (match) · 295 history records