Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda25…3d3f crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$126 (+5%) realized +$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -1.2% -10.6% 47% 47% -1.2%
≤30d 34 -1.2% -10.6% 47% 47% -1.2%
≤90d 34 -1.2% -10.6% 47% 47% -1.2%
all 34 -1.2% -10.6% 47% 47% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 47% -1.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 44% -10.6%
15% -27.0% 44% -19.3%
20% -34.1% 44% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$69 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage2d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $516 +$384 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $781 +$865 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $519 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $367 −$353 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$99 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $87 −$83 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$20 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$33 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $37 +$58 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$7 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$56 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$7 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$7 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $899 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $516 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $198 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $583 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $519 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $367 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $54 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $37 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $87 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records