Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xda24…baba politics 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 16L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$615per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$4
politics 34% −$6
sports 10% −$4
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 18 -1.1% -10.6% 11% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 11% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 6% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 6% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$997) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage156d
Avg bet$615
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $2,167 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 11 $20 −$2 -9%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $1,213 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $1,305 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 28 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 25 $1 $0 +11%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Feb 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 03 $72 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $88 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 20 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $996 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 15? Jan 19 $1 +$1 +54%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 16 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 15 $997 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $270 1h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 66d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $3 77d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $298 93d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $864 93d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $865 100d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $2,167 100d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 100d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 100d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 100d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,167 108d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 109d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1,210 109d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,305 109d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $16 109d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,620 111d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 111d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,305 113d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 113d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 113d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 113d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1,213 113d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,622 113d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $1 114d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $36 128d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $14 129d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $22 129d
Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 100¢ $72 136d
Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 100¢ $36 137d
Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 100¢ $36 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.23 · official $3.23 (match) · 164 history records