Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda22…61d0 sports 16 markets active 12h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$411 (-17%) realized −$421 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$830now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$400
other 5% +$33
world 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -37.1% -43.1% 33% 33% -35.1%
≤30d 12 -37.1% -43.1% 33% 33% -35.1%
≤90d 12 -37.1% -43.1% 33% 33% -35.1%
all 12 -37.1% -43.1% 33% 33% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.1% 33% -35.1%
10% ← realistic here -48.5% 33% -41.3%
15% -53.5% 17% -47.0%
20% -58.1% 8% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$84 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$830
Realized−$421
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 68¢ $700 $716 +$16 (+2%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 38¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $303 +$141 +46%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 +$16 +32%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$32 +32%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $405 −$400 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $203 −$17 -9%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $102 −$3 -3%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $100 +$57 +57%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $61 −$60 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $22 −$22 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 12h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $202 12h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $505 12h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 99¢ $444 12h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $67 13h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 67¢ $303 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 15h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 78¢ $134 15h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $202 15h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $186 16h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 17h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $202 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 17h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 17¢ $20 17h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $98 19h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 19h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 19h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND BUY 31¢ $50 19h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 27h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $102 27h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 27h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $22 37h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 37h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $100 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $830.34 · official $830.34 (match) · 26 history records