Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda1f…870a crypto 369 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70 (-8%) realized −$69 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%199W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$102
sports 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +0.2% -9.3% 54% 53% -9.7%
≤30d 178 -19.8% -27.5% 44% 40% -27.8%
≤90d 368 -15.6% -23.6% 54% 42% -19.2%
all 368 -15.6% -23.6% 54% 42% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 42% -19.2%
10% -30.9% 38% -26.9%
15% -37.6% 35% -34.0%
20% -43.7% 27% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses199 / 169
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)368 / 369
History coverage77d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Down 47¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $1.70 · 779 history records