Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:49:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DA 0xda1e…f6a4 sports 218 markets active 0h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$760 (-2%) realized −$656 · open −$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%92W / 125L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$98
14 days−$98
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$40
crypto 8% −$419
politics 3% −$68
other 3% −$810
world 1% +$118
culture 0% −$13
tech 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +5.4% -4.6% 36% 36% -10.7%
≤30d 55 +5.4% -4.6% 36% 36% -10.7%
≤90d 55 +5.4% -4.6% 36% 36% -10.7%
all 217 -11.1% -19.6% 42% 38% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 38% -12.3%
10% -27.3% 32% -20.6%
15% -34.3% 26% -28.3%
20% -40.7% 18% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$67 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$656
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses92 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)217 / 218
History coverage232d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 37¢ 22¢ $250 $146 −$104 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $137 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$34 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $38 −$38 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $32 +$13 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$13 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $252 +$228 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $106 +$50 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $121 −$121 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$99 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $73 −$58 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $42 −$13 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$21 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$20 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $29 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$71 +337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$50 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $17 +$58 +338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$112 +424%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$22 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$10 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$33 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$13 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$20 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$25 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$40 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $37 +$64 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $261 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $269 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $132 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $107 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $42 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $18 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $33 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $62 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $42 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $480 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.41 · official $146.41 (match) · 777 history records