Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:12:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda19…136e sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-2%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% +$1
sports 28% −$47
tech 11% +$6
economics 10% $0
crypto 10% $0
world 7% +$5
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -34.0% -40.3% 25% 25% -21.5%
all 25 -5.7% -14.7% 36% 4% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 4% -11.1%
10% -22.8% 4% -19.6%
15% -30.3% 4% -27.4%
20% -37.1% 4% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage250d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 14 $44 −$43 -98%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 12 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $198 $0 +0%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 22 $61 +$39 +64%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $98 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 02 $110 +$4 +3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 08 $99 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 03 $2 $0 -7%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $104 +$5 +5%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $98 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 03 $103 +$2 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 08 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 02 $98 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 28 $98 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 11 $4 $0 -3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 31 $100 +$2 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 26 $2 $0 +7%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $96 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 16 $3 $0 -6%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 11 $91 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 48m
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 36¢ $44 32d
Hawks vs. Heat BUY Hawks 40¢ $42 64d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 73d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 81d
Heat vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 61¢ $61 89d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $98 98d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $98 102d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 100¢ $114 105d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 97¢ $110 122d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $99 127d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $99 129d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 132d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $2 133d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? SELL No 100¢ $109 134d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY No 95¢ $104 143d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $98 146d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $98 146d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 152d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $1 152d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 155d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 157d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 160d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 160d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 98¢ $103 173d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $96 178d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $97 178d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 182d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 183d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $98 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.04 · official $34.04 (match) · 77 history records