Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda16…8e5a crypto 718 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,569 (+3%) realized +$5,569 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%350W / 368L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$251est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$352
7 days−$66
14 days−$66
30 days−$389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$2,842
sports 30% +$6,303
other 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -53.9% -58.3% 33% 33% -13.3%
≤30d 11 -74.9% -77.3% 18% 18% -25.0%
≤90d 186 -80.6% -82.4% 10% 10% -48.9%
all 718 -15.2% -23.3% 49% 42% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 42% -7.6%
10% -30.6% 36% -16.5%
15% -37.4% 28% -24.5%
20% -43.5% 21% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$106 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,569
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses350 / 368
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$251
Open positions0
Markets (closed)718 / 718
History coverage177d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 718 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $441 −$74 -17%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $1,109 +$426 +38%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $429 −$418 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $76 −$74 -97%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire May 31 $113 −$111 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 31 $38 −$37 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $75 −$74 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $74 −$72 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $242 −$37 -15%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $259 +$98 +38%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $149 −$145 -97%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $1,285 +$1,455 +113%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $667 +$618 +93%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $1,519 −$1,500 -99%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $259 −$1 -0%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $189 −$185 -98%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 09 $188 −$184 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $76 −$74 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Robert Bryczek vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Main Ca May 02 $76 −$74 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $73 −$73 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Julia Polastri vs. Talita Alencar (Women's Strawweigh Apr 25 $74 −$72 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 19 $960 −$960 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 19 $724 −$720 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 19 $29 −$28 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 19 $25 −$25 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 19 $33 −$33 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 19 $183 $0 -0%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $97 −$94 -97%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 18 $19 −$18 -97%
Busan: Rio Noguchi vs Coleman Wong Apr 18 $20 −$12 -59%
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics Apr 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 18 $187 +$12 +6%
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $130 +$31 +24%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $355 +$102 +29%
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres Apr 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Busan: August Holmgren vs Alexis Galarneau Apr 16 $12 +$7 +59%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $190 +$73 +38%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $20 +$42 +211%
UFC Fight Night: Macy Chiasson vs. Ailin Perez (Women's Bantamweight, Apr 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre SELL Gaston Bolaños 100¢ $675 1h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Gaston Bolaños 53¢ $365 1h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 18¢ $76 1h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre SELL Shane Collins 100¢ $1,535 2h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 72¢ $1,109 3h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 12¢ $74 5d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 12¢ $356 5d
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P BUY Yuneisy Duben 4¢ $76 14d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 3¢ $11 15d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 3¢ $0 15d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 3¢ $1 15d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 3¢ $3 15d
Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire BUY Indiana Fever 27¢ $38 20d
Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire BUY Indiana Fever 33¢ $38 20d
Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire BUY Indiana Fever 32¢ $38 20d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Los Angeles Sparks 8¢ $38 21d
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Ding Meng 33¢ $75 21d
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Aoriqileng 22¢ $74 21d
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P SELL Angela Hill 99¢ $545 21d
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P BUY Jingnan Xiong 8¢ $38 21d
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P BUY Angela Hill 37¢ $102 21d
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P BUY Angela Hill 36¢ $102 21d
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww SELL Jaqueline Amorim 100¢ $357 21d
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww BUY Jaqueline Amorim 72¢ $259 21d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 1¢ $19 33d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 2¢ $19 33d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 7¢ $37 33d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 9¢ $37 33d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 12¢ $37 33d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $2,740 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3261 history records