Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda16…8766 world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate56%25W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$1
other 26% $0
politics 8% +$1
crypto 5% −$2
economics 3% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.0% -8.7% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 14 -0.7% -10.2% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 14 -0.7% -10.2% 43% 0% -9.2%
all 45 -3.6% -12.8% 56% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 2% -9.3%
10% -21.1% 2% -18.0%
15% -28.7% 2% -25.9%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses25 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage467d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 57¢ 56¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $32 +$1 +3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $31 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $33 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $12 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $10 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $12 −$1 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $2 $0 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $35 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wim Eijk be the next pope? May 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $1 $0 -6%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? May 05 $13 $0 +2%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 03 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $77000 and $79000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 19? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Mar 20 $1 $0 -1%
Norfolk State vs. Florida Mar 19 $1 $0 +36%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 21? Mar 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 65°F or higher on March 16? Mar 18 $14 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $3 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +3%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 12 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $31 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $2 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $32 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $28 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $28 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $5 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $27 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $31 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $14 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $14 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $14 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $20 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $32 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $32 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $13 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.27 · official $32.85 (match) · 148 history records