Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:05:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DA 0xda16…ac2b sports 300 markets active 0h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,136 (-1%) realized −$2,154 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%132W / 167L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$742per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$1,947est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16,947
7 days−$11,722
14 days−$5,340
30 days−$7,852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$542
crypto 6% −$2,769
other 6% −$105
world 2% +$702
politics 2% +$30
economics 1% −$760
finance 1% +$221
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -10.8% -19.3% 36% 36% -42.1%
≤30d 76 +3.1% -6.7% 45% 45% -19.2%
≤90d 152 -10.1% -18.6% 39% 38% -16.0%
all 299 -3.9% -13.0% 44% 42% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 42% -10.4%
10% -21.4% 40% -19.0%
15% -29.0% 36% -26.8%
20% -35.9% 32% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$935) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$638 vs −$520 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$682
Realized−$2,154
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses132 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1,947
Open positions1
Markets (closed)299 / 300
History coverage372d
Avg bet$742
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $665 $682 +$18 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $160 +$340 +212%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $470 +$397 +84%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $600 +$400 +67%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $495 −$141 -29%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,280 −$622 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $258 −$258 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 17 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 17 $864 −$786 -91%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $964 −$889 -92%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $390 −$390 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $695 −$695 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $408 −$408 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,150 −$955 -83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $1,617 −$1,617 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $1,036 −$1,036 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 17 $2,337 −$2,337 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,220 −$2,220 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $6,543 −$5,743 -88%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $774 +$1,226 +158%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $590 +$410 +70%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $508 +$556 +109%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $440 −$310 -70%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $367 −$47 -13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $560 −$335 -60%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $984 −$493 -50%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $865 +$1,169 +135%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,640 +$1,394 +85%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $977 +$1,023 +105%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $507 +$439 +86%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$43 -42%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,060 +$940 +89%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $477 +$523 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $113 +$187 +166%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,865 +$1,220 +43%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $1,410 +$1,590 +113%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $980 +$1,020 +104%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $1,160 −$431 -37%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1,255 +$1,242 +99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $980 +$2,017 +206%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,017 −$937 -92%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $941 +$904 +96%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,141 −$934 -82%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $760 +$1,240 +163%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,951 −$1,363 -70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,054 +$597 +57%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 05 $54 +$31 +57%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $2,122 −$1,991 -94%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $1,336 −$1,133 -85%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $1,344 −$1,044 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $13 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $19 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $0 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $682.50 · official $682.50 (match) · 3157 history records