Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda15…c8a6 other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$16
politics 32% −$15
sports 12% −$3
crypto 5% −$1
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 128 -2.6% -11.8% 9% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 3% -9.6%
10% -20.3% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage126d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $192 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $164 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $600 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $157 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $198 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $185 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $173 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $213 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $201 −$2 -1%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $197 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $183 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $163 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $227 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $215 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $220 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $165 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,234 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $225 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $216 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $161 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $215 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $159 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $216 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $195 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? Apr 22 $203 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $204 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $159 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $440 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $223 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $218 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $229 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $218 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $190 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 18 $181 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $214 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $208 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $209 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 26h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 26h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 13d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $192 21d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $192 23d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $164 26d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $164 29d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 29d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 31d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $178 33d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $178 37d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $157 37d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $157 45d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $206 45d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $206 46d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $198 46d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $198 46d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $185 47d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $185 47d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $173 47d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $173 47d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $213 47d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $213 48d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $199 48d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $199 48d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $199 48d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $201 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 401 history records