Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:09:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DA 0xda14…03ea politics 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$16
politics 33% −$13
sports 11% +$33
crypto 3% −$11
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 95 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 132 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage129d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $211 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $305 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $211 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $185 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 22 $192 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $198 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $171 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 16 $168 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $205 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $194 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $206 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $148 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $183 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $179 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $373 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $394 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $157 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $282 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $184 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $355 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $148 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $158 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $173 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $193 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $192 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $180 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $424 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $149 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $387 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 21 $385 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 12h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 12h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $23 4d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 11d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 16d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 16d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 17d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 17d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 18d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 19d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $214 20d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $214 22d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $154 22d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $154 22d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 24d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $211 25d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $187 25d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $187 25d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $190 26d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $190 26d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $185 26d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $185 28d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $192 28d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $192 28d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 28d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 430 history records