Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:46:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DA 0xda0f…f0e7 other 255 markets active 7d ago coverage 124d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 123d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$152,884 (+66%) realized +$152,884 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate58%148W / 107L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$904per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$700est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 124d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$27,279
politics 22% $0
world 19% +$3,318
sports 13% +$1,218
crypto 3% +$173
tech 1% −$1,281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -96.2% -96.6% 0% 0% -98.7%
≤30d 24 +52.2% +37.7% 46% 21% -14.4%
≤90d 183 +12.8% +2.0% 61% 38% -3.2%
all 255 +12.5% +1.8% 58% 38% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.8% 38% +2.5%
10% -7.9% 28% -7.3%
15% ← realistic here -16.8% 21% -16.2%
20% -25.0% 16% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$760) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$369 vs −$227 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$152,884
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses148 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$700
Open positions0
Markets (closed)255 / 255
History coverage124d ⚠
Avg bet$904
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 255 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $747 −$747 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $175 −$162 -92%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $402 +$85 +21%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $247 −$17 -7%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $370 +$10 +3%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $70 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $611 −$18 -3%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $247 −$129 -52%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $70 −$70 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $23 +$10 +46%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2,311 +$23 +1%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $110 −$81 -74%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $510 −$35 -7%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $179 −$157 -88%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $685 +$92 +13%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $269 +$50 +19%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $769 −$183 -24%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $428 +$39 +9%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $320 −$59 -18%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $19 −$10 -56%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,959 +$173 +3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $4,343 +$5 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 3 May 19 $140 +$276 +198%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 3 May 19 $38 −$30 -79%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 17 $259 +$1,590 +613%
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? May 17 $347 +$395 +114%
Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026? May 17 $179 −$136 -76%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 17 $175 −$174 -100%
Will BetBoom Team win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 16 $116 −$53 -46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 16 $146 +$37 +26%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 May 16 $248 +$90 +36%
Will GamerLegion win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 May 16 $51 +$8 +16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 16 $326 +$73 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 16 $1,180 +$89 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $177 −$177 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 16 $427 +$27 +6%
Will Magic win PGL Astana 2026? May 16 $34 −$31 -92%
Will Navi win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Will paiN make it to the IEM Atlanta 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $104 +$1 +1%
Will 9z win PGL Astana 2026? May 16 $996 +$55 +6%
Will Vitality win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 15 $244 −$175 -72%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 15 $659 +$29 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $1,055 −$128 -12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 15 $434 +$148 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 15 $269 +$41 +15%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $185 +$146 +79%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 1 Winner May 15 $198 +$111 +56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner May 15 $1,085 −$186 -17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner May 15 $33 −$13 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 0¢ $0 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 1¢ $8 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 7¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 7¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 7¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $37 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 11¢ $45 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 23¢ $93 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 20¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 20¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 20¢ $40 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 20¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 20¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 20¢ $9 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 20¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 20¢ $150 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 35¢ $71 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 66¢ $134 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 64¢ $21 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 51¢ $103 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 64¢ $194 6d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 45¢ $286 8d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 45¢ $15 8d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 35¢ $71 8d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 35¢ $67 8d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 35¢ $47 8d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 20¢ $62 8d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 30¢ $153 8d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 46¢ $187 8d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 7¢ $17 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records