Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DA 0xda0c…e9c8 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+23%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$4
sports 24% +$2
crypto 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +23.7% +12.0% 62% 62% +20.3%
≤30d 13 +23.7% +12.0% 62% 62% +20.3%
≤90d 13 +23.7% +12.0% 62% 62% +20.3%
all 13 +23.7% +12.0% 62% 62% +20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 62% +20.3%
10% +1.2% 62% +8.8%
15% -8.5% 54% -1.7%
20% -17.5% 38% -11.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +88%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +122%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 20h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 6¢ $0 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 35¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $1 5d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $1 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.80 · official $5.80 (match) · 30 history records