Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:26:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DA 0xda09…cb8b sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 518d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$156 (-29%) realized −$155 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$136
7 days−$136
14 days−$136
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$184
other 23% −$5
sports 18% +$16
politics 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -57.4% -61.5% 0% 0% -67.1%
≤30d 3 -57.4% -61.5% 0% 0% -67.1%
≤90d 3 -57.4% -61.5% 0% 0% -67.1%
all 18 -5.7% -14.7% 39% 39% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 39% -41.8%
10% -22.8% 39% -47.4%
15% -30.3% 39% -52.4%
20% -37.1% 28% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$22 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

518d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$155
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 23
History coverage518d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco leading at halftime? No 37¢ 36¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? No 59¢ 60¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 56¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 19¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $26 −$15 -57%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $27 −$13 -48%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $161 −$109 -67%
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $27 −$2 -6%
Will no new pope be elected in 2025? May 04 $11 −$6 -50%
Will Everton win on 2025-05-03? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-03? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-03? May 04 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Southampton win on 2025-05-03? May 04 $20 +$10 +49%
Rockets vs. Warriors May 03 $22 +$44 +203%
Stars vs. Avalanche May 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Wild May 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Kings vs. Oilers May 02 $5 +$4 +64%
Maple Leafs vs. Senators May 02 $6 +$6 +108%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 01 $38 −$32 -85%
Will the EU impose tariffs on the U.S. before May? Feb 03 $6 +$3 +43%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Feb 03 $10 +$11 +116%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Feb 03 $26 −$14 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY No 37¢ $40 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $12 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 19¢ $4 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 59¢ $12 1h
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $11 1h
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $14 1h
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $53 1h
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $24 110d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $27 111d
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 111d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $105 123d
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 123d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $32 136d
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $27 136d
Will no new pope be elected in 2025? SELL Yes $6 416d
Will no new pope be elected in 2025? BUY Yes $11 417d
Will Everton win on 2025-05-03? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 417d
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-03? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 417d
Will Southampton win on 2025-05-03? BUY No 67¢ $20 417d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-03? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 417d
Rockets vs. Warriors SELL Rockets 100¢ $65 417d
Rockets vs. Warriors BUY Rockets 33¢ $22 418d
Kings vs. Oilers BUY Oilers 61¢ $5 419d
Maple Leafs vs. Senators BUY Maple Leafs 48¢ $6 419d
Golden Knights vs. Wild BUY Wild 41¢ $20 419d
Stars vs. Avalanche BUY Stars 38¢ $17 419d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? SELL Yes $2 419d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 505d
Will the EU impose tariffs on the U.S. before May? SELL No 30¢ $9 505d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.45 · official $76.45 (match) · 69 history records