Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda09…a8a2 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 393d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$1
other 27% −$1
politics 12% −$1
crypto 6% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 13 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 0% -9.2%
all 36 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

393d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage393d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $11 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $6 $0 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $21 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $39 +$2 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $43 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 22 $3 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $46 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 26 $28 −$1 -5%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 03 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? May 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 29 $4 $0 +2%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio May 28 $2 $0 +8%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? May 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 28 $27 $0 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $101K on May 27? May 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $16 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $29 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $21 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $12 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $15 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $19 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $8 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $41 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 88¢ $41 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 88¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $11 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $9 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $14 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $7 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $7 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $15 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $26 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $40 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $45 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $45 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $21 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $29 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.10 · official $44.10 (match) · 100 history records