Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda08…e189 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$2
world 28% −$2
politics 12% $0
sports 8% −$14
crypto 5% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 0% -10.0%
all 36 -2.8% -12.1% 33% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -10.8%
10% -20.5% 0% -19.4%
15% -28.2% 0% -27.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage331d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $29 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $11 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $51 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $31 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $6 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 30 $46 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 05 $42 +$1 +3%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 26 $14 $0 -2%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 24 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 01 $5 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $52 $0 +0%
Will three people dissent the Fed decision? Jul 30 $52 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 30 $51 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 29 $52 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $29 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $17 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $13 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $11 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 33h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $26 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $19 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $10 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $30 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $8 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $4 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $19 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $31 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $30 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $9 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $21 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.70 · official $28.70 (match) · 120 history records