Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

DA 0xda07…77e2 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$368 (+27%) realized +$607 · open −$239

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +53% what you keep after slip

Net edge+53%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate42%8W / 11L

Drawdown54%max

Avg bet$63per market

Trades / day5.4pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit59%portable

Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$336

14 days+$361

30 days+$361

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)+59.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+99.3%	+80.3%	47%	47%	+24.6%
≤30d	19	+75.7%	+59.0%	42%	42%	+21.9%
≤90d	19	+75.7%	+59.0%	42%	42%	+21.9%
all	19	+75.7%	+59.0%	42%	42%	+21.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+59.0%	42%	+21.9%
10%	+43.8%	42%	+10.2%
15%	+29.9%	37%	-0.4%
20%	+17.1%	37%	-10.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 34% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +76% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +39% → late +109% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$86 vs −$30 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$3

Realized+$607

Unrealized−$239

Win rate (resolved)42%

Wins / losses8 / 11

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 22

History coverage10d

Avg bet$63

Trades / day5.4

Drawdown54%

Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	No	25¢	0¢	$242	$3	−$239 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$91	+$104	+114%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$296	+$101	+34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$85	+864%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$65	−$64	-99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$12	−$12	-97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$20	+$66	+324%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$41	+$102	+249%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$41	−$40	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$101	+$56	+55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$21	+$133	+649%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$78	+$43	+55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$43	−$1	-2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10?	Jun 11	$53	−$17	-32%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 11	$27	−$1	-4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	25¢	$9	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	25¢	$238	1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	45¢	$2	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	46¢	$89	2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY No	73¢	$4	2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY No	74¢	$292	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY No	73¢	$65	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	11¢	$1	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	10¢	$9	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	13¢	$1	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	12¢	$11	3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$21	4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$87	4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$20	4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will France win on 20	BUY	7¢	$21	5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$143	5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-	BUY	5¢	$21	6d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$51	6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$102	6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$41	6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	6d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$10	6d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$31	6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	99¢	$157	6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$20	6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$154	6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$21	7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	64¢	$78	7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	85¢	$42	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.39 · official $3.39 (match) · 56 history records