Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DA 0xda05…9e0c sports 230 markets active 2h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized −$15 · open +$44
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate63%141W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$3
14 days+$82
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$44
other 28% +$127
crypto 8% −$30
weather 1% −$2
finance 1% +$7
politics 1% −$8
world 1% −$6
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -16.1% -24.1% 50% 50% -9.0%
≤30d 33 -2.4% -11.7% 58% 55% -17.9%
≤90d 114 -9.3% -18.0% 54% 45% -10.6%
all 223 -4.4% -13.5% 63% 48% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 48% -9.5%
10% -21.8% 34% -18.1%
15% -29.3% 23% -26.0%
20% -36.3% 13% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses141 / 82
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions7
Markets (closed)223 / 230
History coverage257d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 68¢ 96¢ $60 $84 +$24 (+41%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 79¢ 84¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 100¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+51%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 99¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +44%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $40 +$16 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$26 +52%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $201 +$22 +11%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$14 +135%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$31 -61%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$12 +48%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $95 +$15 +16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$19 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$15 +101%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $40 +$8 +20%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 +$6 +31%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $85 −$84 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $20 −$20 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $20 +$15 +73%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $23 +$37 +156%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 29 $15 +$21 +133%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) May 27 $87 −$3 -4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $107 −$106 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 26 $101 +$74 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $91 +$29 +32%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 18 $20 +$15 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$3 -67%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $8 +$2 +18%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Apr 20 $10 $0 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $2 +$1 +33%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $17 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will Solana dip to $60 in April? Apr 20 $18 +$1 +5%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $8 +$2 +31%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 16 $6 +$2 +40%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 16 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $20 +$6 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 7h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 7h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $20 3d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $6 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $24 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $201 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 6d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $30 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $25 6d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 8d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 9d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 11d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 11d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 12d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $40 13d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.71 · official $253.71 (match) · 489 history records