Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:56:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9fe…3fcf crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-6%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -16.1% -24.1% 57% 43% -7.3%
≤30d 7 -16.1% -24.1% 57% 43% -7.3%
≤90d 7 -16.1% -24.1% 57% 43% -7.3%
all 7 -16.1% -24.1% 57% 43% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 43% -7.3%
10% -31.3% 29% -16.2%
15% -38.0% 14% -24.3%
20% -44.1% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records