Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9fd…87e3 crypto 691 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (279 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,061 (-50%) realized −$2,051 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate21%238W / 869L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day279.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,496
7 days−$1,569
14 days−$1,843
30 days−$1,843
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$422
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (279 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 691 -35.6% -41.7% 15% 10% -57.2%
≤30d 1107 -26.6% -33.6% 21% 14% -39.7%
≤90d 1107 -26.6% -33.6% 21% 14% -39.7%
all 1107 -26.6% -33.6% 21% 14% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover279.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.6% 14% -39.7%
10% ← realistic here -40.0% 11% -45.5%
15% -45.8% 7% -50.7%
20% -51.1% 6% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,051
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses238 / 869
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1107 / 691
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day279.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -887%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -517%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -230%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -802%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +1473%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$2 +756%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -434%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$3 -456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -133%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +307%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1042%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$2 +810%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 3500 history records