Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:58:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9fd…9a0e other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate24%11W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$12
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$15
economics 2% −$1
sports 2% −$19
world 2% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -10.0% -18.5% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 46 -6.1% -15.1% 24% 4% -10.1%
all 46 -6.1% -15.1% 24% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 4% -10.1%
10% -23.2% 2% -18.7%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses11 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage84d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $237 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $256 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $236 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $236 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $266 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $247 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $123 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $124 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $124 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $247 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $124 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $124 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 10 $2 −$1 -63%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $142 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $143 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $290 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $291 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $145 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $145 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $145 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $147 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $147 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $147 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $277 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 26 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 22 $139 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $12 +$2 +18%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 13 $11 +$1 +5%
Heat vs. Wizards Apr 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Bucks vs. Pistons Apr 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $7 +$2 +29%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 06 $7 $0 +4%
Hawks vs. Nets Apr 04 $7 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $6 $0 +3%
Bucks vs. Rockets Apr 02 $6 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $6 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $99 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $113 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $113 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $113 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $113 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $113 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $113 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $113 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $113 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $122 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $122 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $123 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $123 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $123 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $123 19d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $123 19d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $123 21d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $123 21d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $123 23d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $123 23d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $123 25d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $123 25d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $123 26d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $123 26d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $123 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $123 27d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $123 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.47 · official $104.47 (match) · 170 history records