Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D9 0xd9fc…6a36 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+9%) realized +$58 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$19
tech 29% −$15
politics 20% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -9.3% -17.9% 0% 0% -17.9%
≤30d 3 +10.4% -0.1% 67% 67% -1.8%
≤90d 3 +10.4% -0.1% 67% 67% -1.8%
all 3 +10.4% -0.1% 67% 67% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 67% -1.8%
10% -9.7% 0% -11.2%
15% -18.4% 0% -19.7%
20% -26.4% 0% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$15 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.33 per $1 lost it wins $3.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage22d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $142 $132 −$10 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 19 $160 −$15 -9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $133 +$28 +21%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 11 $111 +$21 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $145 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 50¢ $146 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 53¢ $160 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $161 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $133 7d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 66¢ $132 7d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 53¢ $111 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.33 · official $132.33 (match) · 7 history records