Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9fa…e9c2 other 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+2%) realized +$1 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%45W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$8
14 days+$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$3
crypto 25% −$1
sports 17% +$3
world 16% +$3
finance 7% $0
politics 3% −$2
tech 2% $0
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +22.9% +11.2% 67% 61% +21.7%
≤30d 99 -22.0% -29.4% 34% 29% -8.1%
≤90d 133 -18.4% -26.1% 34% 29% -11.4%
all 133 -18.4% -26.1% 34% 29% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 29% -11.4%
10% -33.2% 24% -19.9%
15% -39.7% 21% -27.6%
20% -45.6% 15% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses45 / 88
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)133 / 148
History coverage54d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 64¢ 83¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.74%? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+75%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 37¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? Yes 47¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Yes 53¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 Under 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%? Yes 47¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $3 +$5 +158%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -53%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +156%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +47%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +76%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +131%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Will USD/JPY hit 170 (High) in 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -18%
Will USD/JPY hit 165 (High) in 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 05 $1 $0 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 05 $2 $0 -17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 03 $0 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December? Jun 02 $2 $0 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 02 $1 +$5 +470%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $0 $0 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 1? May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Santos FC 1 - 0 EC Vitória? May 31 $1 $0 +25%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $1 +$1 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -71%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $1 +$1 +51%
Centurion: Edward Winter vs Stefano Napolitano May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tokushima Vortis win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 +$1 +138%
Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: Both Teams to Score May 30 $0 $0 +0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 30 $1 +$1 +101%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $1 $0 +42%
Will Shōnan Bellmāre win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 14¢ $1 56m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 1h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 100¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 8h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 87¢ $1 13h
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 29h
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 29h
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.74%? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 29h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $0 32h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 39¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 4d
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 83¢ $1 4d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 66¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.66 · official $20.67 (match) · 305 history records