Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:02:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D9 0xd9f5…0688 sports 570 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$229 (-0%) realized −$425 · open +$196
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%278W / 288L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$527est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$869now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$405
7 days−$282
14 days−$654
30 days−$1,321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$405
other 34% −$33
crypto 0% +$224
world 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -1.3% -10.7% 47% 47% -12.4%
≤30d 171 -4.7% -13.8% 46% 46% -14.4%
≤90d 477 -1.5% -10.8% 49% 49% -8.5%
all 566 -2.9% -12.1% 49% 49% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 49% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 47% -17.6%
15% -28.2% 45% -25.6%
20% -35.3% 42% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$93 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$869
Realized−$425
Unrealized+$196
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses278 / 288
Est. fees paid−$527
Open positions6
Markets (closed)566 / 570
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$102
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 566 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 1+ goals No 36¢ 62¢ $215 $373 +$158 (+74%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 94¢ $150 $237 +$88 (+58%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $157 $136 −$21 (-13%)
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? No 21¢ 10¢ $50 $23 −$27 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Magic vs. Timberwolves Jun 23 $0 +$1 +245%
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed by March 31? Jun 23 $0 −$1 -1379%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $126 +$74 +59%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $129 −$129 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $177 −$177 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $152 +$213 +140%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $84 −$84 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $184 −$184 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $141 +$71 +50%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $190 −$190 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $302 +$278 +92%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $190 +$149 +79%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $181 +$213 +117%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $38 +$114 +300%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $148 +$252 +170%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $163 −$163 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $227 +$122 +54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $182 +$155 +85%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $154 +$41 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $184 −$184 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $286 −$286 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $252 +$284 +113%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $152 +$142 +93%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $355 +$131 +37%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $152 +$111 +73%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $116 +$84 +72%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $224 +$184 +82%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $153 −$153 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $238 +$269 +113%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $202 +$194 +96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $226 +$185 +82%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $107 −$107 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $245 −$245 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $233 −$233 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $267 +$186 +70%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $291 −$291 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $237 −$237 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 +$152 +317%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 +$174 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $9 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $11 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $28 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $5 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $868.83 · official $867.83 (match) · 3500 history records