Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9f3…4f8c world 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$47 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate26%20W / 58L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$25
politics 27% −$3
other 20% −$4
sports 14% −$7
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 22 -0.9% -10.3% 36% 5% -10.8%
≤90d 37 -1.4% -10.8% 24% 3% -10.1%
all 78 -0.8% -10.2% 26% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -10.0%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses20 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage310d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 46¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $56 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $56 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $117 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $54 +$2 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $64 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $61 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $62 +$2 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 07 $69 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $126 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $4 $0 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $12 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $65 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $172 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $64 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $76 −$6 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $165 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $85 −$21 -25%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $85 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $10 −$2 -24%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $87 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $87 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $542 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $157 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $128 −$1 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $131 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $145 −$1 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $625 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $688 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $688 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $163 −$7 -4%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $631 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 24 $57 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Aug 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $11 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $55 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $56 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $56 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $17 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $21 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $21 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $55 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $55 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $22 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $40 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $61 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $56 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $5 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $49 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $47 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $20 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $39 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $3 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.18 · official $25.11 (match) · 286 history records